Share trading

Conviviality PLC (CVR) – Research

Conviviality PLC (CVR)

Source of tip

This came via the Motly Fool share tips – courtesy of a cool little site that ranks share tipsters – I’ll be doing a follow up post on that soon.

Research

What’s the company worth (Market Cap)?

Share price x number of shares.
Looking for £50m to £950m.

471.30M

What are the full year pre-tax profits?

Full year, preliminary, interim results.
Look to see if the market cap is 15x this at most.

Full year pre-tax profits (01/05/2016) – £8.93M
Interim pre-tax profits (30/10/2016) – £7.43M

However the ratio isn’t great – potentially over priced

What is the net debt?

Should not exceed 3x full year pre-tax profits

Total Equity in business (01/05/2016) – £182.83M

Big spread?

Anything more than 5% = bad
2.7% 

Price rising?

Yes

Profits rising?

Full year, preliminary, interim results
Yes

Dividends rising?

01/11/2015 – 6.3p
30/10/2016 – 7.4p

Yes

Is the outlook positive?

Full year, preliminary, interim results
Yes

Anything negative happening?

Nothing from google searches

Are markets improving or getting worse?

Improving

What sector is it part of – any concerns in the press?

Wholesale and retail supply of beers, wines, spirits, tobacco, grocery and confectionery

Next statement due on?

imminent

Company website good?

Yes

Any recent director share dealings?

No

It’s been a bad few days on the market…

…and consequently a lot of the minor gains I’d started to make have been reversed. However, I’ve not hit any of my stops yet and there is some better economic data around…so fingers crossed things should start heading up.

Admiral – still holding up but the ‘talk’ seems to be edging more on the sell side of things, with the question now being should I take the little profit or is there more to go? So the reason I bought into Admiral was their recent expansion plans locally – these are still on course and they are still recruiting a lot of jobs. This was always going to be a long burn for me – and given where the rest of the market is I think there is scope for it to improve. So I’m going to sit tight.

Breedon Aggregates Ltd – since buying at the end of Jan there was a brief spike before falling back off – with the general trend being lower not higher. Currently I’m down 2% but looking at some of the advice the consensus is a buy. So it seems worth sitting tight again – especially as most of the investment firms holding this have a 75.50 target point.

Xaar plc – overall this is down 3% but again the talk is of potentially higher prices. If anything the last 3 weeks have been fairly flat so again a hold as there’s no sign of bad news.

Dart Group plc – has taken quite a hit recently and currently in my portfolio down 5.8% with very little talk around it. I’m going to watch this closely for the next couple of trading days and cut my losses if something positive doesn’t happen soon.

EasyJet – this was another gut feel buy based on a few articles I’d read and so far (again) the talk is glowing and the performance lacking – down 2.7% but I’m going to sit tight for now.

Fusionex International plc – So these shares crashed from a fairly solid, long term, level of around 330…mainly due to some supplier cash flow issues and some bad comms. The news is positive and the company still seems solid – so again sit tight.

I hate sitting tight!

Peace

G

Trading tool-set for newbies

One thing that has struck me in the world of shares is there is very little around that gets recommended without an angle. Lots of places and people will offer up their preferred tool-set/forum/font of knowledge but you can bet there’s a registration or referral involved.

So just to track where I am and what I’ve found here are three great sites that have really helped me…

The Share Centre – best place to trade

So when I started out on this roller coaster (or other travel metaphor) I was looking around at trading sites that offered up practice accounts. Probably for it’s clear/no clutter/lack of adds, share.com stood heads and shoulders above many of its competitors. The practice account lured me in, the features and friendly advice and support kept me coming back.

Although I’m just learning via the practice account, eventually trading through then is probably an option – supported by the numerous recent awards they’ve won.

Things I like…

  • Modern clean/crisp feel to the site
  • Lack of cheap looking adverts
  • Lots of support and friendly advice/articles

Google Finance – best place to get the latest portfolio news

For me this has been a recent discovery and probably one that I should have engaged my brain around and checked out sooner. I’d played around with getting news on my shares and watch lists on a few different sites but nothing hit the mark…I thought about setting up google alerts (and still probably will for IPO news) and then I stumbled across Google’s finance section. Login and give it your portfolio and immediately it brings up all the latest news on your shares. Of course the news feeds are detailed and comprehensive but then it’s google – who better for trawling the internet for new articles.

One very nifty feature is that any upcoming events linked to your shares can be added to your calendar at the click of a button – but then I am a sad google fan-boy.

Things I like…

  • Simple interface for reviewing portfolio performance
  • Comprehensive news listing
  • Integration with calendars so no big event is missed

Hargreaves Lansdown – best place to look for shares

Another recent discovery, although it’s cropped up in a few articles I’ve read – so I probably should have checked it out sooner. Hargreaves Lansdown have a great site that I’ve only started getting into but what has really stood out has been their stock screener. It’s comprehensive and detailed with many options for filtering shares based on a multitude of indicators. Ok,some of the cool slider things sometimes get in the way – but all in all it’s a great tool.

Things I like…

  • Lack of adverts getting in the way (take note ADVFN)
  • Detailed filter options for shares

Peace

G

Sunday summary

 Practice account
                      investment       shares    bid price (p) value (£)   gain    
Admiral 30  1773.00 c +2.80% 531.90   9%
Breedon Aggregates 729  66.75 c -0.40% 486.61   -1%
Dart 86  551.50 c +1.10% 474.29   -3%
EasyJet 30  1547.00 c +1.40% 464.10   -4%
Fusionex internati… 317  148.00 c +23.30% 469.16   -5%
GO ETF Solns FTSE1… 5  18651.00 c +4.70% 932.55   2%
Xaar 99  477.75 c +1.60% 472.97   -3%
              value £3,831.58 

 

Fusionex International – research

Fusionex International share price (FXI)

I stumbled on this company from the Naked Traders website – he bought 2500 shares a few days a go.
So it might be worth a punt as well – but research needs to be done first…

  1. What’s the company worth (Market Cap)?
    ADVFN quote page – Share price x number of shares
    Looking for £50m to £950m
    £ 73.32m (on the small side but within range)
  2. What are the full year pre-tax profits?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Look to see if the market cap is 15x this at most.
    £28.37 – results from Sept-15 
    However the forecasts for 2016 seem to drop to around £4m??
    Looking into this further there seems to be an issue moving to different channel partners(?) and extending payment periods – impacting cash-flow.
  3. What is the net debt?
    Should not exceed 3x full year pre-tax profits
    Net assets in business
  4. Big spread?
    Anything more than 5% = bad
    4.73% 
  5. Is the share price rising?
    ADVFN yearly charts
    IT’s had a massive fall – due to the trading statement and the market reaction – but it does seem to be on the rise again (maybe a market over reaction?).
  6. Profits rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes
  7. Dividends rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes
  8. Is the outlook positive?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes
  9. Anything negative happening?
    Cash flow delays
  10. Are markets improving or getting worse?
    Worse
  11. What dividend does it pay and when?
  12. Sector?
    IT Services sector
  13. Next statement due on?
    imminent
  14. Company website good?
    Yes
  15. Any recent director share dealings?
    One director has bough two additional chunks of shares and there was a warning of significant interest in the share.

So the above doesn’t paint a great picture…and to illustrate the fall here’s the last twelve months:-

FXI_chart_image

It’s a big fall from the normal level of support – back to the level it floated at.
Does a good company become bad overnight – certainly NT seems to have seem something in it.

As I’m still learning I’m going to take a position and see if this is an over reaction (I just hope I’m not catching a falling knife).

Peace

G

Trade tracker page

I decided last week that I needed to do a better job of tracking the buys/sells that I was doing. Although my trading career is still in its infancy I was finding it difficult to remember where I bought shares and the thinking behind them. The solution – a simple tracking table linked to the articles where I research – easy!

So my first inclination was just to code this directly into a html table and update it each week – then I go into thinking about the overhead of doing this after 1-2 years.

I needed something slicker that was more spearsheet-esque…and after a very short search I came across a data table generator by Supsystic:-

https://en-gb.wordpress.org/plugins/data-tables-generator-by-supsystic/

The key benefits for me being:-

  • No complicated td tr coding
  • Support for the typical excel-style formulas
  • Easy CSS integration – simple to vary colours and fonts
  • Searching, ordering and pagination functions

After an hour of playing around waiting for Steph & Isaac to get ready for Delyth’s party I had what I needed with all the data…check it out:-

http://www.galiquis.com/index.php/blog/trade-tracker/

Peace

G

Sunday summary

 Practice account
                      investment       shares    bid price (p) value (£)   gain    
          Admiral 30  1674.00 c +1.10% 502.20   3%
          Breedon Aggregates 729  67.25 c +2.70% 490.25   0%
             Dart 86  566.00 c +1.00% 486.76   0%
          EasyJet 30  1639.00 c +0.60% 491.70   2%
             Xaar 99  457.00 c -0.70% 452.43   -7%
              value £2,423.34 

Early days and still finding my feet…plus there seems a lot of nervousness in the market with the slow down in China.

 

Breedon Aggregates Ltd. share price (BREE)

Breedon Aggregates Ltd. share price (BREE)

  1. What’s the company worth (Market Cap)?
    ADVFN quote page – Share price x number of shares
    Looking for £50m to £950m
    £ 720.58
  2. What are the full year pre-tax profits?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Look to see if the market cap is 15x this at most.
    £26.93 – not a great return
  3. What is the net debt?
    Should not exceed 3x full year pre-tax profits
    Net assets in business
  4. Big spread?
    Anything more than 5% = bad
    4.2%
  5. Is the share price rising?
    ADVFN yearly charts
    Over the year yes
  6. Profits rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes
  7. Dividends rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes
  8. Is the outlook positive?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes
  9. Anything negative happening?
    No – they’ve just won a new contract
  10. Are markets improving or getting worse?
    Worse
  11. What dividend does it pay and when?
  12. Sector?
    Construction & Materials
  13. Next statement due on?
    imminent
  14. Company website good?
    Yes
  15. Any recent director share dealings?

Analysis – DTG DART GROUP PLC ORD 1.25P

DTG – DART GROUP PLC ORD 1.25P

  1. What’s the company worth (Market Cap)?
    ADVFN quote page – Share price x number of shares
    Looking for £50m to £950m
    £830.70m
  2. What are the full year pre-tax profits?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Look to see if the market cap is 15x this at most.
    £76.91m (forecast) – x  10.8 good
  3. What is the net debt?
    Should not exceed 3x full year pre-tax profits
    Net assets in business
  4. Big spread?
    Anything more than 5% = bad
    0.265%
  5. Is the share price rising?
    ADVFN yearly charts
    Over the year yes
  6. Profits rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes 
  7. Dividends rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes 
  8. Is the outlook positive?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes 
  9. Anything negative happening?
    No
  10. Are markets improving or getting worse?
    Worse
  11. What dividend does it pay and when?
  12. Sector?
    Industrial Transportation
  13. Next statement due on?
    March
  14. Company website good?
    Yes
  15. Any recent director share dealings?
    Director recently increased his holding and gifted shares to his wife.

Shares, bears and shares

The research continues and my one research pick – not doing so well!
But my other ‘heard good things’ seem to be doing well despite the ‘bear’ market…

So what has this taught me?

I’ve not cracked the secrets of good research yet – and I’m not going to just go with my gut instinct (despite the amount of investment I’ve made in it). Although I’ve found the naked trader good – I feel I need a more thorough understanding and different perspective on things.

With this in mind I’ve bought my second share-trading book ‘The Financial Times Guide to Selecting Shares that Perform: 10 ways to beat the stock market (The FT Guides)”

Big title that hopefully has content that lives up to it.

But I do need to get more disciplined in my search for good shares and the research that then goes alongside it. This is especially important as everything seems on a little bit of a downer. Now I’m not intending to try and catch a falling knife – I want to make sure that my ‘picks’ are based on sound investment strategy rather than just being lucky that the market has turned.

XAAR – research

LSE:XAR

  1. What’s the company worth (Market Cap)?
    ADVFN quote page – Share price x number of shares
    Looking for £50m to £950m
    £378.22m
  2. What are the full year pre-tax profits?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Look to see if the market cap is 15x this at most.
    £23m – x16.4 so not a bargin 
  3. What is the net debt?
    Should not exceed 3x full year pre-tax profits
    Net cash in business
  4. Big spread?
    Anything more than 5% = bad
    1.43%
  5. Is the share price rising?
    ADVFN yearly charts
    Over the year yes
  6. Profits rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes 
  7. Dividends rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes 
  8. Is the outlook positive?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes 
  9. Anything negative happening?
    No
  10. Are markets improving or getting worse?
    Worse
  11. What dividend does it pay and when?
  12. Sector?
    Technology Hardware & Equipment
  13. Next statement due on?
    March
  14. Company website good?
    Yes
  15. Any recent director share dealings?
    CEO recently increased his holding by 4,361 shares (~£2k)

So looks ok, maybe not a bargin but worth a ‘virtual punt’.

 

A few potential buys for this week

As I’m still finding my feet I’ve not really gone massively into researching some ‘buys’ but in my travels I have found a few worth looking at:

  • Xaar
  • Devro
  • Hargreaves Serv

They all had big gains last week and I found them on www.lse.co.uk

Some others that have caught my eye:-

  • Easyjet – positive statement from a debt rating agency
  • Admiral – local news story about expansion

 

Finding shares to invest in

Below is a list of questions that NT suggests asking when evaluating any share – my plan being to use the below as a template for my research…

  1. What’s the company worth (Market Cap)?
    ADVFN quote page – Share price x number of shares
    Looking for £50m to £950m
  2. What are the full year pre-tax profits?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Look to see if the market cap is 15x this at most.
  3. What is the net debt?
    Should not exceed 3x full year pre-tax profits
  4. Big spread?
    Anything more than 5% = bad
  5. Is the share price rising?
    ADVFN yearly charts
  6. Profits rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes = good; no = bad
  7. Dividends rising?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes = good; no = bad
  8. Is the outlook positive?
    Full year, preliminary, interim results
    Yes = good; no = bad
  9. Anything negative happening?
  10. Are markets improving or getting worse?
  11. What dividend does it pay and when?
  12. Sector?
  13. Next statement due on?
  14. Company website good?
  15. Any recent director share dealings?

 

So a new year…

…and another resolution to get back to writing everyday – or at least more frequently.

And my latest project is looking a the stock-market and seeing if in 2016 I can learn to be a smarter investor.
So with the new year came a new copy of the Naked Trader (4th edition) and after a few read throughs it’s time to start giving it a whirl.

Just not with real money – at least not yet…

Instead I’m going to be dummy trading on www.share.com and only when I double the ‘virtual’ £15k will I trust myself to use real cash.
Plus it gives me some time to do a little saving.

Peace

G